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中国式的全球化

日期:2011-5-10 9:37:39 人气: 时间:2017-05-09 17:00 来源:未知 作者:admin

   中国式的全球化? A strategy to straddle the planet

Anil Ambani was in ebullient mood last October when he arrived at a luxury hotel in ?Shanghai to sign one of the biggest business deals of the year. The Indian billionaire’s Reliance Power had just agreed to purchase $10bn of power generation equipment from the state-owned Shanghai Electric.

去年10月,安尼尔?安巴尼(Anil Ambani)兴高采烈地抵达上海一家豪华酒店,签署年度最大的商业合同之一。这位印度亿万富翁麾下的信实电力(Reliance Power)刚刚同意向国有上海电气集团(Shanghai Electric Power)购买100亿美元的电力设备。

“It is the largest order in the history of the power sector,” proclaimed Mr Ambani, “and the largest single business relationship between India and China.”

安巴尼宣称:“这是电力行业有史以来最大的订单,也是印中之间最大的一笔商业往来。”

The size of the deal was not its only notable aspect. Shanghai Electric was offering its equipment at about 30-40 per cent below the cost of an equivalent turbine from General Electric of the US. With the generous financing deal offered by China Development Bank and a group of other Chinese banks, the discount was in fact closer to 60 per cent.

交易规模并非唯一引人注目之处。上海电气提供的涡轮机价格,比美国通用电气(GE)同类设备的价格低出30%到40%。再加上中国国家开发银行(China Development Bank)及其它几家中资银行的慷慨融资交易,折扣率实际上接近60%。

Welcome to a new era of globalisation, China-style. As the financial crisis recedes, one of the big fears is that the process of increasingly closer links among big economies worldwide will go into reverse as governments and countries look inward. The message coming from the world’s second-largest economy for the past year has been clear: China wants to accelerate the integration of the global economy, but on its own terms.

欢迎来到全球化新时代??中国式的全球化。随着金融危机渐行渐远,人们的一个主要担忧是,随着各个政府及国家将目光放到内部,全球大型经济体联系日益紧密的进程将会逆转。而作为世界第二大经济体的中国,在过去一年里所释放的信号非常清晰:它想加速全球经济一体化进程,但要按它的意愿行事。

Over the past few decades, China has benefited hugely by hitching itself to a process of globalisation where the rules were written in Washington and the American consumer was the buyer of last resort. China prospered by making first the socks, then the washing machines and finally the iPods sold at Walmart.

过去几十年,投入由华盛顿书写规则、美国消费者作为最后购买者的全球化进程,令中国受益匪浅。中国先是生产袜子,然后制造洗衣机,最后生产在沃尔玛(Walmart)销售的iPod,由此走上了繁荣之路。

Coming out of the crisis, China wants to forge a new phase of globalisation where many of the roads ? financial, commercial and perhaps eventually political ? converge on Beijing. China is not seeking a rupture with the international economic system (although some foreign companies are fearful of a technology grab). But it is looking to mould more of the rules, institutions and economic relationships that are at the core of the global economy. It is trying to forge post-American globalisation.

走出危机后,中国希望造就一个条条道路??金融、商业、也许最终还有政治??通北京的全球化新阶段。中国并非寻求与国际经济体系决裂(尽管一些外国公司对技术的强取豪夺心生畏惧),而是指望能对作为全球经济核心的规则、制度及经济关系,发挥更大影响。它正尝试打造后美国时代的全球化。

In recent years, a range of important countries have found that China rather than the US is their principal trading partner, from neighbouring Japan and South Korea to commodity-rich Australia and Brazil. At times over the past year, Chinese imports of oil from Saudi Arabia have exceeded Riyadh’s shipments to the US.

近年来,从相邻的日本和韩国,到大宗商品资源丰富的澳大利亚和巴西,一系列重要国家纷纷发现,它们最重要的贸易伙伴是中国,而不是美国。过去一年,中国从沙特阿拉伯进口的石油有时已超过沙特对美国的出口。

With the help of its considerable financial firepower, China is deepening these links. Beijing is establishing trade relationships that allow it to sell not just clothing and consumer products but more sophisticated goods such as power equipment. Its banks are helping to expand infrastructure and energy supplies in other developing countries in ways that will accelerate their growth, boost two-way trade and bind them closer to the Chinese economy. Beijing is also looking to establish a role for its currency in the international monetary system,大红鹰线上娱乐网址, in part at the expense of the dollar.

在可观财力的帮助下,中国正在深化这些联系。北京方面正在建立这样一种贸易关系:它不仅能出口服装与消费品,而且还能出口电力设备等更高端的商品。中资银行正帮助扩大其它发展中国家基础设施与能源供应的方式,将加速这些发展中国家的增长、促进双向贸易、密切它们与中国经济的联系。中国政府还寻求让人民币在国际货币体系中谋得一席之位,这在一定程度上会削弱美元的地位。

“China will boost its role at the centre of a growing web of economic and financial connections. These links are gradually, but inexorably, integrating east Asia,” says Evan Feigenbaum, head of the Asia practice at Eurasia, a consultancy. “China will continue to seek to reshape the region’s trade and investment architecture, largely on a pan-Asian basis and without the US.” It is not just Asia: Africa, Latin America and the Middle East are all being touched by China’s global push.

欧亚咨询(Eurasia)亚太业务负责人方艾文(Evan Feigenbaum)表示:“中国将提升其在不断扩大的经济与金融联系网络中的核心作用。尽管缓慢,但这些联系正不可阻挡地推进东亚的一体化。中国将继续寻求重塑东亚的贸易与投资架构,基本上是在不包括美国的泛亚洲层面上。”不仅仅是亚洲:中国向全球的扩张,触角也伸到了非洲、拉美与中东。

Central to a great deal of this activity is China Development Bank, which has become the financial muscle in the country’s overseas drive. In the energy sector alone, CDB has awarded loans to other developing country governments or companies of more than $65bn in the past two years, according to Erica Downs at the Brookings Institution in the US. Including China’s EximBank, Beijing has made more than $110bn in long-term loans to developing countries over that period, a number that exceeds the World Bank’s lending.

国开行在诸多此类活动中扮演了关键角色,它已成为中国海外活动的金融支柱。据美国布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的邓丽嘉(Erica Downs)表示,过去两年,单是在电力行业,国开行就向其它发展中国家政府或公司提供了650多亿美元贷款。加上中国进出口银行(China’s EximBank),中国同期向发展中国家发放的长期贷款逾1100亿美元,比世界银行(World Bank)发放的贷款还要多。

Development by design

有计划的发展

Run by Chen Yuan ? son of Chen Yun, one of the country’s most powerful officials in the 1980s ? CDB is a unique hybrid of the Chinese party-state: a “policy” bank whose mission is to assist the development goals of the nation but which has managed to forge an enviable record of profitability and commercial savvy. When Mr Chen took the helm in the late 1990s, CDB’s lending had been so abused by local governments that its bad debt ratio approached 43 per cent. Last year Dragonomics, a Beijing consultancy, described it as “China’s best-managed bank”.

由中国上世纪80年代最有权势的官员之一??陈云之子陈元领导的国开行,是中国党政一体制度下独特的混合体:一个以帮助国家实现发展目标为使命的“政策性”银行,但也成功打造了令人艳羡的盈利与商业运作记录。陈元上世纪90年代末接掌国开行时,该行的贷款遭到地方政府大肆滥用,其不良贷款率接近43%。去年,北京咨询机构龙洲经讯(Dragonomics)将其称作“中国管理最好的银行”。

Ahead of the crisis, Mr Chen flirted with several big investments in western banks (and CDB did buy a small stake in Barclays of the UK). But over the past two years, he has thrown the bank’s weight behind investments in other developing countries, especially those that are energy or commodity-rich. “Everybody is saying we should go into the market and buy up low-priced [financial] assets,” he told an interviewer last year. “But I think we should be thinking about partnerships in natural resources.”

危机之前,陈元曾考虑过对西方银行的几笔大额投资(国开行也的确购买了英国巴克莱(Barclays)的少数股权)。但过去两年,陈元却让国开行全力支持对其它发展中国家的投资,尤其是那些能源或大宗商品资源丰富的国家。他去年告诉一位采访者:“每个人都在说,我们应该进入市场,购买低价(金融)资产。但我认为,我们现在应考虑与自然资源企业合作。”

To organise its global push over the past decade, CDB designated each of its branches as having responsibility for a different part of the world. The Henan branch thus took on southern Africa and the Chongqing office was told to develop contacts in the Balkans. By the end of 2009, the bank had teams in 141 countries, including all but a handful of Africa’s 50-plus nation states.

过去十年,为了实施其全球扩张,国开行指定每个

In a book about his experiences working overseas for the bank,大红鹰线上娱乐网址, Shi Jiyang recalls looking at a map of the world in his office in Shenzhen in 2006 and wondering if he would ever get a chance to visit South America: a month later, he was sent there to find new business. “South America is going to be the hot spot for Chinese investment in the coming 10 years,” he writes. “Entrepreneurs who want to ‘challenge the blue ocean’ should be ready to go to South America.”

分行负责世界上一个地区。河南分行负责南非,重庆分行负责发展与巴尔干半岛的业务往来。到2009年底,该行已在141个国家拥有团队,其中包括非洲50多个国家中的绝大多数(除了屈指可数的几个之外)。

In the process, CDB and EximBank have operated at a scale and speed that cannot be matched by most other financial institutions. Brazil’s Petrobras signed a $10bn loan agreement with CDB in 2009, shortly after agreeing with the US Ex-ImBank on a $2bn line of credit. According to José Sergio Gabrielli, Petrobras chief executive, it was considerably easier to secure credit from the Chinese than the Americans. The US needs to think much more about its strategic interests, he adds.

在一本讲述自己在国开行的海外工作经历的书中,Shi Jiyang回忆道,2006年,他在深圳的办公室里看着世界地图,心想不知自己是否有机会去南美:一个月后,他就被派到那里开发新业务。“未来10年,南美将是中国投资的热点,”他写道。“任何想‘挑战未知市场’的企业家都应该准备好去南美。”

Some of these loans are helping to accelerate the integration of the rest of Asia with China through energy and infrastructure projects ? such as oil pipelines from Russia, Kazakhstan and Burma, which are under construction or already operating, or railway lines linking Vietnam, Laos and Burma with south-west China.

在此过程中,国开行和中国进出口银行投入的规模和速度,是其它大多数金融机构无法比肩的。2009年,巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)与美国进出口银行(Ex-ImBank)达成20亿美元的信贷安排后不久,又与国开行签署了100亿美元的贷款协议。巴西国家石油公司首席执行官若泽?塞尔吉奥?加夫列利(José Sergio Gabrielli)表示,从中国获得贷款比从美国容易得多。他补充道,美国对自身战略利益的考虑要多得多。

In the Reliance case, the combination of low-cost finance and competitive Chinese manufacturing is helping India to expand its creaking energy network faster than would otherwise have been possible ? and has enabled Mr Ambani to gain an edge over more cautious rivals. Reliance Power is buying 30,000 megawatts of boiler, turbine and generator packages, which Shanghai Electric will provide over three years. Banks in India are reluctant to lend beyond five to seven years but Reliance has won terms as long as 12 years under the China deal. Reliance Communications, another of Mr Ambani’s companies, is using a $1.9bn loan from Chinese banks to pay down more expensive Indian debt.

这些贷款中,有一部分正通过能源和基建项目,帮助加速亚洲其它地区与中国的一体化,例如正在建设中或已投入运营的从俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和缅甸进入中国的石油管道,大红鹰线上娱乐网址,或是连接越南、老挝和缅甸与中国西南部地区的铁路线。

Chinese policymakers see this sort of deal as the start of a powerful trend that will deepen integration with the rest of the developing world. “China is now working closely with all these fast-growing emerging market economies and I see a big future,” says Li Daokui, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China, the central bank. “All the forces are working in the same direction. They have resources and need capital. We have extra capital to invest. So why not?”

在信实的例子里,低成本融资和有竞争力的中国制造业的结合,正推动印度摇摇欲坠的能源网络以比本来更快的速度扩张,并让安巴尼获得了相对于更谨慎竞争对手的优势。信实电力购买了3万兆瓦的锅炉、涡轮机和发电机组,将由上海电气在3年内提供。印度各银行不愿发放5至7年以上的贷款,但通过与中国的交易,信实获得了长达12年的贷款。安巴尼麾下另一家企业??信实电信(Reliance Communications),正用从中资银行获得的19亿美元贷款,来偿还成本更高的印度债务。

Beijing’s global push is helping to open new markets for Chinese goods and also serves a broader strategic goal for Beijing, reducing dependence on the US. The American consumer may still be one of the main driving forces in the global economy, but about half of China’s exports now go to developing countries. The big ticket loans also further China’s efforts to diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the dollar.

中国的政策制定者认为,此类交易开启了将深化与其它发展中地区一体化的强劲趋势。“中国现在正与所有这些发展迅速的新兴市场经济体展开密切合作,我认为前景很光明,”中国央行(PBoC)顾问李稻葵说道。“所有因素都在朝着同一个方向努力。他们拥有资源,需要资本。而我们有多余的资本可投资。何乐而不为?”

Some of China’s post-crisis objectives represent a more explicit challenge to US leadership of globalisation. Take, for instance, China’s long-term plans to internationalise its currency, which have been sharply accelerated over the past year. The immediate goal is to make the renminbi the main currency for trade in Asia, reducing costs for Chinese exporters. Some of the loans to Mr Ambani’s empire are in renminbi ? with the Chinese offering to help hedge the currency exposure.

中国政府的全球扩张,正帮助中国商品打开新市场,同时有利于中国政府实现一个更宏大的战略目标:降低对美国的依赖。美国消费者或许仍是全球经济的主要推动力量之一,但如今,中国约有半数的出口商品流向发展中国家。大额贷款也促进了中国降低外汇储备中美元比重的努力。

But among Chinese officials and scholars, there is a widely held view that the US has been abusing its position as controller of the main reserve currency by pursuing irresponsible economic policies. Nor do they hide the underlying geopolitical objective of the currency push ? to place limits on the role of the dollar in the international monetary system. “The financial crisis?.?.?.?let us clearly see how unreasonable the current international monetary system is,” Li Ruogu, head of China EximBank, said last year. Jiang Yong, at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, puts it more starkly: ending US dominance of the monetary system is “as important as New China’s becoming a nuclear power”.

中国制定的后危机目标中,有一些向美国的全球化领导地位提出了更明确的挑战。中国实现人民币国际化的长期计划就是一例。过去一年,这些计划已明显提速,其直接目标就是让人民币成为亚洲主要的贸易结算货币,由此降低中国出口企业的成本。安巴尼帝国获得的贷款中,一部分就是以人民币形式提供的??以此帮助对冲汇率风险。

Risks and roadblocks

但中国官员和学者普遍持有的一种观点是:美国一直在通过推行不负责任的经济政策,滥用其作为主要储备货币管理者的地位。他们也毫不掩饰人民币扩张的根本地缘政治目标??限制美元在国际货币体系中的作用。中国进出口银行行长李若谷去年曾表示:“金融危机……让我们清楚认识到,当前的国际货币体系有多么不合理。”中国现代国际关系研究院(CICIR)的江涌说得更直白:终结美国对货币体系的主宰,“其重要性不亚于新中国成为核大国”。

Yet several obstacles could derail this new phase of China-led globalisation. For a start, India and many other developing countries are aware of the risk of being steamrollered by China’s manufacturing machine, especially when it is bolstered by a quasi- mercantilist economic strategy that keeps the Chinese currency undervalued against those of many of its emerging peers.

风险和障碍

One Indian executive reflects that his country ships plastic pellets to China that are then made into buckets. If India cannot even make plastic buckets competitively, he implies, its battle will be tough.

然而一些障碍可能会使中国引领的全球化新阶段脱离正轨。首先,印度以及其他许多发展中国家意识到,它们有可能会被中国的制造机器压垮,尤其是在中国的制造业得到准重商主义经济战略支持的情况下??这种战略使得人民币兑其他许多新兴国家货币的汇率保持在低估水平。

Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s new president, has meanwhile indicated that one of her first priorities will be holding talks with China about its currency and trade policies. “This is an issue not only for Brazil but for all emerging countries,” says Fernando Pimentel, her new trade minister.

一位印度企业高管提到,印度将塑料颗粒运往中国,然后在中国做成塑料桶。他暗示说,如果印度连生产塑料桶的竞争优势都没有,这场战斗会很艰难。

China’s investment largesse also risks sparking a backlash. In some resource-rich nations, such as Australia, its form of state capitalism raises fears that the mining sector will be the Trojan horse that leads to Beijing’s control of commodity prices. In Africa, where China has done deals with some of the weakest governments, there are signs of a backlash by groups protesting at corruption or poor working conditions. “Western companies [in Africa] have cleaned up their act in the past decade, but China is turning the clock back,” says Paul Collier, an Oxford Africa expert. “It is no defence to say: ‘You plundered the poor, so now it is our turn’.”

与此同时,巴西新任总统迪尔玛?罗塞芙(Dilma Rousseff)指出,她的一项首要认为就是就中国的汇率和贸易政策与中国磋商。罗塞芙的新任贸易部长费尔南多?皮门特尔(Fernando Pimentel)说:“这不仅是巴西的问题,也是所有新兴国家的问题。”

Perhaps the biggest risk to China’s ambitions lies in the security tensions they are provoking in its own backyard. Just as quickly as Asian countries are integrating with China’s economy, they are also rushing into the arms of the US for military protection against a more assertive Beijing.

中国慷慨的投资也有激起反弹的风险。在澳大利亚等一些资源丰富的国家,中国的国家资本主义形式引发了人们的忧虑,即采矿业会成为导致中国政府控制大宗商品价格的特洛伊木马。在非洲,中国与一些最软弱的政府达成了交易,但那里也出现了反弹的迹象,有一些团体抗议腐败或工作条件恶劣。“过去十年,(非洲的)西方企业改正了自己的行为,但中国正在把时钟拨回去,”牛津大学(Oxford)非洲问题专家保罗?柯利尔(Paul Collier)说道。“‘你们也掠夺过穷国,所以现在轮到我们了’,这种说辞并不能替自己辩护。”

Vietnam invited the US navy to hold a joint drill in the South China Sea last summer. During a bruising diplomatic dispute between Japan and China in the autumn after the Japanese coast guard arrested a Chinese fishing boat captain, China appeared to halt exports of rare earths to Japan. For the rest of Asia, it was a chilling reminder that their economic links with China could leave them exposed if they have a political falling-out with Beijing.

中国抱负面临的最大风险可能是在自家后院挑起的安全紧张局势。亚洲国家以和中国经济一体化同样快捷的速度投入了美国怀抱,以寻求军事保护,防范更加自信的中国。

For all the economic optimism coursing through Asia at a time when much of the developed world is still struggling, it is worth reflecting on another important difference: while defence spending is under pressure in the west, in Asia it is rising strongly. China is the reason for that, too.

去年夏天,越南邀请美国海军在南海举行联合军演。去年秋天,在日本海岸警卫队逮捕了一名中国渔船船长后,中日两国发生了严重的外交纠纷。在此期间,中国似乎暂停了对日本的稀土出口。这对其他亚洲国家是一个冷峻的警示:如果与中国发生政治争执,它们与中国的经济往来就会让它们身陷险境。

尽管在多数发达国家仍在苦苦挣扎之时,整个亚洲的经济进程却颇为乐观,但我们有必要反思另一个重要的差异:当西方国家的国防开支面临压力之际,亚洲的国防开支却在强劲增长。其中的原因也在于中国。

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